000 AGXX40 KNHC 061846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM COLIN LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR 27.7N 86.5W WITH MAX WINDS 45 KT GUST TO 55 KT. DEEPEST CONVECTION INCLUDING THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS APPEARS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE QUADRANT. ALTIMETER PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING CONFIRMING SEAS TO 15 FT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE CENTER OF THE STORM OVER N FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OVER THE SW N ATLC TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND SEAS TO 15 FT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LINK UP WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TROUGH MID WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE CENTER OF COLIN MOVES OVER THE SW N ATLC...THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAILING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL-SOUTH FL SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH AT LEAST WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRAILING CONVERGENCE FROM T.S. COLIN OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTS CONVECTION...FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS...AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIMINISHING THESE WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASING DISTANCE BETWEEN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COLIN...DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF COLIN WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E TO NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUE THROUGH WED AS COLIN WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BUILDS BACK WESTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LESSER ANTILLES...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH WED. THE WAVE WILL THEN ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO END THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUE MORNING WITH 35-50 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF 28N IN ZONE AMZ111...AND MAX SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 14 TO 17 FT AS IT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE NW WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 12 FT SEAS SLIDING EASTWARD INTO ZONES AMZ113 TUE AFTERNOON AND AMZ115 TUE NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW N OF 40N WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NE WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LINGERING FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .GMZ19...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.