000 AGXX40 KNHC 060741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 341 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM COLIN LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24.4N 87.6W WITH MAX WINDS 35KT GUST TO 45 KT HAS BROAD ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...SEAS AND DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WELL EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...PRIMARY MARINE EFFECTS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0224 UTC SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. EXPECT TS COLIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES N-NE IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS AREA OF MAX WINDS AND SEAS SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS WELL MAINLY E OF 85W-86W. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVING AWAY. IN ITS WAKE STRONG S-SE WINDS CONTINUE N OF 17N AND W OF 81W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 17N W OF 85W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY ASCAT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE AS COLIN MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUE MORNING WITH 35-50 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF 27N IN ZONE AMZ111...AND MAX SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 15-18 FT AS IT RACES ACROSS NW WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY TUE EVENING WITH AN AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO ZONE AMZ115 TUE NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW N OF 40N WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 29N. BY THU THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WITH BENIGN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.