000 AGXX40 KNHC 051912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH 12Z MWW3 EXCEPT INCORPORATED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTED AREAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMED THIS MORNING FROM THE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING LAST NIGHT. AS OF 15Z THE DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W OR ABOUT 125 MILES NW OF COZUMEL MOVING N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF. SE TO S WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR 24.0N 87.5W THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN SOME MORE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR 26.9W 86.3W EARLY ON MON...AND REACH THE FAR NEAR GULF NEAR 29.6N 84.2W MON EVENING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT. A TRAILING TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE... WEAK LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 28N95W WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON...THEN MEANDER THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE MON...AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TUE THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN PART THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT PER WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS AND SQUALLS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH BUOY 42056 REPORTING COMBINED SEAS TO 11 FT. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TSTM AND SQUALLS. ELSEWHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1418 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY ON TUE AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. THE SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT DURING MON AFTERNOON...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY ON TUE AS THE FORECAST GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM LIFTS FURTHER NE OF THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN AVERAGE THEREAFTER. A RIDGE IS ALONG 30N AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE JUST N OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE WELL NW OF THE AREA LATE ON TUE...HOWEVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE STORM WILL DRAG AN AREA OF S-SW TROPICAL FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ZONE AMZ111 TUE WITH MAX SEAS TO AROUND 13 OR 14 FT. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE OF THE AREA LATE TUE...BUT MAY POSSIBLY SCRAPE THE FAR NW PORTION OF ZONE AMZ113 TUE NIGHT. THE STORM WILL BE WELL N OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WED...AND WEAKEN OVER THE NE WATERS THU AND FRI. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 29N THU AND FRI. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 (THU AND FRI) THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT OVER THE BASIN WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS... AND 1-2 W OF THE BAHAMAS. AN EXCEPTION IS THAT HIGHER SEAS ARE FORECAST IN THE NE PORTION WHERE DISSIPATING NW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE THERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.