000 AGXX40 KNHC 050730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE TEXAS COAST CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIED DOWN TONIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...BUT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST 6 HOURS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THOUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SYNOPTIC OBS SHOW FRESH S-SE WINDS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN AS A RESULT. THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. EXPECT A TROPICAL LOW TO EMERGE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND DEEPEN OVER THE S GULF WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TRANSITIONING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... EITHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OR AFTER CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF W FLORIDA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION IN BROAD DISJOINTED BANDS COVERING MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS ESTIMATED NEAR 19N87W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS W OF 80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND STRONG E-NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 69W-76W. FRESH TRADES PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT S-SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT TODAY IN PARTS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN DEEPENS. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT S OF WESTERN CUBA...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT MON. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 8-9 FT WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR COLOMBIA THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN AVERAGE THEREAFTER. A RIDGE PREVAILS ALONG 30N AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS... A REFLECTION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NE OF A CYCLONIC GYRE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH MON AND AN INTENSIFYING LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 75W AS THE LOW RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WATERS N OF 26N TUE THROUGH WED. STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THU AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILD ESE ACROSS THE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING MON. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.