000 AGXX40 KNHC 041850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHT USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL... EXCEPT AN EVEN BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS FOR ERN GULF ZONES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT E GULF SECTIONS. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. BUOYS ARE SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE SW GULF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF...AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER ERN TEXAS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AND LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY N OF 25N W OF 85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING N...EXCEPT ACTIVITY ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST N OF 26N IS SPREADING EASTWARD. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THOUGH EARLY SUN AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE SE ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE WRN PART OF W CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE NLY WINDS. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IS FORMING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE COAST OF NRN HONDURAS ON A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS MOVING INTO THE GYRE. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH TRACK OF THE LOW INTO THE GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF MON AND ACROSS N FLORIDA MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MINIMAL GALES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND THIS IN TURN WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN GULF. NDFD GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY TO REFLECT FORECAST TRENDS IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT NW CARIBBEAN AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING COLD-TOP CONVECTION IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE BROKEN BANDS COVERING MUCH OF THE NW AND FAR W CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE AND ILL-DEFINED LOW JUST N OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16.5N86W. THIS IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N82W TO INLAND THE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING LARGE CYCLONIC CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE. E-SE WINDS OF 20- 25 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS PER OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED REGARDING THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE CURRENT OBSERVED ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE OFF TO THE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SUN AS IT STRENGTHENS. THE ENSUING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE WILL INCREASE THE E-SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25-30 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON SUN. SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 10-13 FT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT EARLY ON MON. SLY FLOW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY JUST N OF THE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF N FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN AVERAGE THEREAFTER. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE E BAHAMAS AND A RIDGE ALONG 30N PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS SHOW LIGHT-GENTLE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS AND GENTLE-MODERATE WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH MON. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVING N-NE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MON AND INTO THE SW N ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AS THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTING HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GALE CONDITIONS SE OF THE LOW TUE AS IT TRACKS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF ZONE AMZ111 IN NW WATERS. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS IN NW WATERS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MON THROUGH TUE AS THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN LIFTS N OF THE FAR NW WATERS TUE. THE LOW WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...REACHING THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE ON THU. STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE FAR NE WATERS LATE THU. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE S OF 27N MON AND MON NIGHT. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AND MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.