000 AGXX40 KNHC 040730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SUN INTO MON NIGHT. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN SW GULF AND S-SE ELSEWHERE. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS IS ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 25N W OF 87W. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO MON NIGHT. A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING SUN NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF MON AND ACROSS N FLORIDA MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MINIMAL GALES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS IN TURN WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THROUGH MON. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A TROUGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA WITH 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS ALSO EVIDENT S OF CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED REGARDING THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. W OF 80W...A LARGE GYRE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SE WINDS TO 25-30 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BUILD MAX SEAS TO 10-12 FT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...BUT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WE WILL SEE GALES S OF WESTERN CUBA AS THE LOW IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE N OF THE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF N FLORIDA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE E BAHAMAS AND A RIDGE ALONG 30N PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS SHOW LIGHT-GENTLE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS AND GENTLE-MODERATE WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL RECEDE EASTWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS BETWEEN 80W-85W THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG LOW MOVING N-NE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS N FLORIDA MON AND INTO THE SW N ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GALE CONDITIONS SE OF THE LOW TUE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 IN NW WATERS. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS IN NW WATERS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MON THROUGH TUE AS THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN EXITS WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.