000
AGXX40 KNHC 030700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

WEAK RIDGE ACROSS 30N PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER TEXAS IS REFLECTED AS A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TX
AND IS ENHANCING SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 95W. EXPECT A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ALONG THE TX COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A
LARGE GYRE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING N OF THE YUCATAN MON AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLA
TUE. WHILE THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG
LOW WILL FORM NEAR YUCATAN AND MOVE INTO FLORIDA...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE MARINE FORECAST FOR
EASTERN GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING FRESH-STRONG E WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND MODERATE-FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE E OF 75W BASED ON LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH N OF
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. W OF 80W A LARGE GYRE IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL STRENGTHEN SE WINDS TO 25-30 KT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND BUILD MAX SEAS IN THE NW CARIB TO 9-11 FT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE MARINE FORECAST ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE E BAHAMAS AND A RIDGE ALONG 30N PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT-GENTLE
WINDS OVER WESTERN WATERS AND GENTLE-MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THROUGH SUNDAY BUT FORECAST
CERTAINTY DECREASES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.