000
AGXX40 KNHC 021752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF...MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OVER THE NW GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND 3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST THINKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE
GYRE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY AND OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN FLORIDA TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...REACHING LOCALLY STRONG OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE WIND AND SEA FORECAST OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE PREVAILING
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHER WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE NW
WATERS...5-6 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF
THE BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT FORECAST CERTAINTY DECREASES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.