000 AGXX40 KNHC 020718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 318 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W WITH AN E TO W RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF...WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. AN EXCEPTION IS JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED FRESH SE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NW GULF OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE S CENTRAL OR SE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG JUST N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER. A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SE PORTION IN AMZ127. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT IN THE NW PORTION...WITH 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL ATTEMPT BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY IN THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARISES DUE TO POSSIBLE BROAD LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE OF EASTERN FLORIDA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.