000 AGXX40 KNHC 010716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 316 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A 1014 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27.5N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E TO W THROUGH THE HIGH. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS SPREADING INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE GULF...AND MODERATE E-SE FLOW ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW IN THE NW GULF. WINDS JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE PULSING TO FRESH AHEAD OF A THERMAL TROUGH...BUT WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE LOWERS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT OR FRONTAL TROUGH. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING BROAD LOW PRESSURE UP FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 72W DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE BASIN AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TEMPORARILY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS IN LATER THIS WEEK...WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE MODELS HAVE VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRI IS LOW TO MEDIUM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC. THIS WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH FRESH WINDS SPREADING TO THE NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO FRI. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT FROM THE N COLOMBIA COAST TO S OF GRAND CAYMAN LATE THIS WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF MIXED SWELL WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. MODELS ARE FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK... THEN BUILDING SE WITH AN AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 29N BY THE WEEKEND. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.