000 AGXX40 KNHC 310736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1016 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W WITH A NEARLY E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ABOUT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF. OTHERWISE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE W-NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRODUCING EVENING/OVERNIGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF NEAR 6 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE NE TAKING THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION NOW TO THE N ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE E OF 75W...AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS W OF 75W. THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN REBUILDS AND AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA DEEPENS. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMMENCING LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...EXPANDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN INDICATING BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL OR SW CARIBBEAN TO THE NW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...POTENTIALLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES THIS COMING WEEKEND DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE-E SWELL WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM TRADES REMAIN AT FRESH LEVELS ACROSS AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN DECREASING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE EXTENDS INTO THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE BASIN INTO THE NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE E ANALYZED ALONG 73W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS OFF TO THE SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS RIDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN W OF 65W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OCCASIONALLY WEAKENING AND THEN REDEVELOPING WHILE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AT THE SAME TIME. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. EASTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SE PORTION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE E OF 70W LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE MOVING THE POTENTIAL LOW NE-E OF 65W QUICKLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.