000 AGXX40 KNHC 251816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A HEAVILY WEIGHTED MIX OF THE LATEST NWPS AND ECMWF MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 32N76W. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY INDICATED MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN N ATLANTIC WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT STRONGER IN BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. A SIMILAR TREND IN THE MODELS WAS NOTED CONCERNING SURFACE TROUGHS FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A HEAVILY WEIGHTED MIX OF THE LATEST NWPS AND ECMWF MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1150Z OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 41041 WAS 7.9 FT. SEVERAL ALTIMETRY PASSES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FT FROM 15N TO 25N TO THE E OF 50W. AT 1150Z BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDICATED 21 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS. 1445Z ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN AND VENEZUELAN COASTS NORTHWARD TO 17N. ADDED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF COLOMBIA TO INITIALIZE AN MCS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED AT 12Z WITH WAVE AXES NEAR 77W AND 62W. HOWEVER...THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS PRESENT NEAR 38W. PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON THU AS HIGH PRES TO THE N IS WEAKENED BY SYNOPTIC LOW PRES MOVING EASTWARD FROM N AMERICA. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A HEAVILY WEIGHTED MIX OF THE LATEST NWPS AND ECMWF MODELS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADDED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INITIALIZE AN MCS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING ALONG 80W. CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 31N66W. SURFACE LOW PRES APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 26N68W. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW NW TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE SLOWING THEM DOWN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST UPDATE CARRIES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI AND SAT. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SW OF THE SURFACE LOW... WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK...THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1215Z GAVE LOW TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND MEDIUM DEVELOPMENT CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 5 DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.