000 AGXX40 KNHC 230652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHILE REMAINING COLD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRI EVENING. STILL EXPECT DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE NW YUCATAN COAST EACH NIGHT FROM TUE NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CAUSE A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WIND MAXIMUM OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AREA OF WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED THEN WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY WED GENERALLY SOUTH OF 15N. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED...REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MON BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT 00Z IT STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N76W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED THROUGH 31N74W TO 25N76W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND TROUGH. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF 31N AND E OF THE FRONT WAS GENTLE TO MODERATE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N45W WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 21N70W. OTHERWISE...FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THU THEN SHIFTING BACK W FRI AS A FRONTAL TROUGH. IN ANY CASE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.