000 AGXX40 KNHC 221833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN MCS THAT CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF. ADDED WORDING FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE OFFSHORE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS CONVECTION ACCORDINGLY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRI EVENING. STILL EXPECT DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH E WINDS IS LIKELY NEAR THE NW YUCATAN COAST EACH NIGHT DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGHING COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED FORECAST FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BASED ON 12Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP BATFR14. EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AS RIDGING TO THE N WEAKENS/SHIFTS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE E OF THE UNITED STATES E COAST. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WIND MAXIMUM OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REVERTING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 58W CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THU. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM E OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT 18Z IT STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 23N80W TO 29N77W. SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND TROUGH WAS MINIMAL. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED RETURN FLOW S OF 31N AND E OF THE FRONT WAS MODERATE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM 25N74W TO 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N37W. CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS CALLS FOR CARRYING LIGHTER WINDS E OF THE FRONT...SO DROPPED MENTION OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT IN THE LATEST FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH COULD SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE NW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WED THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.