000 AGXX40 KNHC 220701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITES STATES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ATLC DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON THROUGH WED. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE BASIN...PERIODIC IMPULSES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE SE OVER THE GULF TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE PERIODIC IMPULSES MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE TX COAST TO FL STRAITS THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT TO DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH E WINDS NEAR THE NE YUCATAN COAST EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SHIFT OF THESE WINDS A COUPLE HUNDRED NM TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EMERGING OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND ARRIVE AT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOMETIME ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THU. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EXTREME W ATLC AND FLORIDA WILL AMPLIFY MID WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG AND N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL EMERGE OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS LATER TODAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND NW WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITIONING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN EVENING...THEN FROM 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER THIS SAME AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE. BEYOND THAT TIME THE FRONT WILL HAVE DISSIPATED INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION FORECAST BY THE MODELS THROUGH AT LEAST WED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.