000 AGXX40 KNHC 211800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A POORLY DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE US GULF COAST FROM SE TEXAS TO SRN ALABAMA. ASCAT AT 1520 UTC SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO DRIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES DRIFTS INTO THE NE GULF. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA LATER TONIGHT AND DRAG A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA SUN THROUGH MON. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE THROUGH WED. DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT TO DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH E WINDS NEAR THE NE YUCATAN COAST EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 27N IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ASCAT DATA AT 1430 UTC SHOWS LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 12-16N BETWEEN 69W-79W. E-SE WINDS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC. HIGH PRES WILL REDEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE AND HELP SHIFT THE FOCUS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIB A LITTLE EASTWARD TO AROUND 65W-75W FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 37W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT...REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER NE WATERS ALONG 29N E OF 72W. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NW WATERS EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO MELBOURNE FL. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS BROAD LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 26N. EXPECT AREA OF LOW PRES TO DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SWEEP A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...REACHING FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN...FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 31N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE. QPF FORECASTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED E AND SE OF THE FRONT. PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION AS TEMP AND DEW PT CONTRASTS ALONG THE FRONT ARE MINIMAL AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT DURING FROPA. TROPICAL WAVES IN THE LOW LATITUDES OF THE ATLC WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN WATERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.