000 AGXX40 KNHC 210637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF...AND REORIENTING IT MORE W TO E OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NE TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SLIDE SE OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FL SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF BASIN LATE SUN. THE HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW...MAINLY W OF 90W MON NIGHT INTO WED. ELSEWHERE...A DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH E WINDS NEAR THE NE YUCATAN COAST EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NOCTURNALLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THIS PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF 70W AND ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THIS AREA SUN THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FRESH-STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE SE CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED NEAR 50W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AROUND MON EVENING. MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT RESOLVE THIS WAVE WELL...WITH CURRENT FORWARD MOTION ESTIMATED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE WATERS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED W TO E WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND OUT OF OUR AREA SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE W ATLC OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC UNITED STATES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS ON SUN...EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FL SUNDAY EVENING...AND FROM 31N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY MON EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND WEAKEN ON TUE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL HELP TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE W-CENTRAL ATLC AND SHIFT IT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL THEN REDEVELOP TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.