000
AGXX40 KNHC 191755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS W OF 85W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS SHOW MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS IN THE NW GULF...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NE
GULF SAT NIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE GULF SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A TROUGH OVER
TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF MON...
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS EXPECTED W OF 90W WON THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. A DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SMALL AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W EACH NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING SHOWED 25-30 KT HIGHEST WINDS
FROM 12.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W...AND LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG E-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE CENTERED NEAR 13N76W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN THROUGH TUE
WITH MAX SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3 GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A RIDGE
EXTENDS 26N E OF THE TROUGH. BUOY OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOW MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS E
OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHT W-SW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF
THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO 28N71W FRI...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION
DISSIPATES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA SAT NIGHT TO EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FL
SUN...THEN REACH FROM 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MON...AND
FROM 31N65W TO 26N71W TUE. THE SUBTROPICAL MID-ATLANTIC HIGH
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE S OF 22N THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.