000 AGXX40 KNHC 190747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 347 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...00Z MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR SEAS...A MIX OF MODELS FAVORING THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATED WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WERE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5 TO 15 KT. WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF 90W WERE FROM THE N TO NE AT 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE SE GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GENERALLY MAINTAIN E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE A BIT FARTHER S INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF TODAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE FRI/SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS STRONGER AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SAT AND CONTINUE SE OVER THE GULF E OF 90W SUN AND MON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BOOST THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH DAY...THEN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EVENINGS AND DISSIPATE EACH MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...00Z MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR SEAS...A MIX OF MODELS FAVORING THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MANUALLY ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS UPWARD FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W AND S OF 20N TO INITIALIZE WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTIMETRY FROM 1920Z AND 2200Z SHOWED 8 TO 9 FT SEAS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 08N TO 20N EASTWARD TO 55W. 1740Z ALTIMETRY INDICATED 8 TO 9 FT SEAS FROM 15N TO 25N E OF 40W. AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TRADE WIND WAVES AND SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THIS AREA WILL SUBSIDE AND ALLOW SEAS TO FALL BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SAT. AN EARLIER 0826Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 8-12 FT SEAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HAITI AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. 24 HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS ENDING AT 2250Z FROM BUOY 42058 N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 15N75W SHOWED WINDS NEARLY STEADY AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 8.5 TO 10 FT. A 0150Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO 14N AND OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. 20 KT WINDS EXTENDED FARTHER N TO 16.5N. 0332Z ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N AND W OF 84W. LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG EACH DAY THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...00Z MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR SEAS...A MIX OF MODELS FAVORING THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 31N72W TO 26N78W. ASCAT IMAGERY FROM 0100Z AND 0152Z SHOWED S TO SW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. N OF 22N...MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW RETURN FLOW ALONG THE W FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 29N IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N74W. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA ON SUN...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE MON. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE E OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT BRINGS REINFORCING NORTH WINDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. S OF 22N...THE PRES GRADIENT N OF HISPANIOLA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES UNTIL FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.