000 AGXX40 KNHC 181851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK 1013 MB SFC LOW NEAR MOBILE AL WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 25N90W WAS MOVING NE. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND A 1528 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WERE FROM THE S/SW AT 5 TO 10 KT. WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM 25N90W TO NEAR VERACRUZ WERE FROM THE N/NE AT 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NE GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GENERALLY MAINTAIN E/SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT. IN THE INTERIM...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF TONIGHT/THU...STALL AND DISSIPATE LATE THU. RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BRIEFLY ON FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE FRI/SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF SAT AND PRESSES SE OVER THE GULF E OF 90W SUN AND MON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST ENHANCING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ERN GULF. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH DAY AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EVENINGS AND DISSIPATE EACH MORNING. THE TROUGHS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW GULF FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1610 UTC ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS SHOWED SEAS OF 8 TO NEAR 9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC S OF 12N ALONG 57W/58W WHICH CAPTURED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WHICH COVERED THE AREA S OF 13N AND EXTENDED EASTWARD TO ALONG 40W. AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TRADE WIND WAVES AND SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THIS AREA WILL SUBSIDE AND ALLOW SEAS TO FALL BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SAT. AN EARLIER 0520 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 11-12 FT SEAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12.5N75W. BUOY 42058 N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 15N75W REPORTED 10 FT SEAS EARLIER...WHICH HAVE SUBSIDED TO 9 FT. THE EDGE OF A 1442 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED E WINDS OF 20 KT S OF 17N W OF 67W. LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT JUST N OF JAMAICA. WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG EACH DAY THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA NE TO A 1011 MB SFC LOW NEAR WILMINGTON NC. THE MCS THAT WAS OVER FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED SE OVER THE N-CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. N OF 22N...MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW RETURN FLOW ALONG THE W FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 29 N WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT AND THU IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. NWP MODELS IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SUN AND SWEEPS EASTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE MON. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE N OF THE AREA LATE SUN/MON. AS SUCH THE MODELS BRING IN STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA. S OF 22N...THE PRES GRADIENT N OF HISPANIOLA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES UNTIL FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.