000 AGXX40 KNHC 180749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 349 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...BLENDED A MIX OF MODELS STRONGLY FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MCS THAT WAS AFFECTING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLIER IS CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE ATLANTIC. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND MOST RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAVE SUBSIDED TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NE GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GENERALLY MAINTAIN SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NRN GULF COAST AND STALL TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF ON SAT...THEN PUSH INTO THE NRN GULF WATERS ON SUN. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH DAY AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EVENINGS AND DISSIPATE EACH MORNING. THE TROUGHS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW GULF FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...BLENDED A MIX OF MODELS STRONGLY FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 14-21Z ALTIMETRY SHOWED SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... TRADE WIND WAVES AND SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THIS AREA WILL SUBSIDE AND ALLOW SEAS TO FALL BELOW 8 FT ON SATURDAY. 16-20Z ALTIMETRY INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA WAS LOCATED N OF PANAMA AND ALONG THE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA COASTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BUOY 42058 N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 15N75W REPORTED E WINDS OF 25 KT AT 0850Z AND E WINDS OF 19 KT AT 2150Z. 0210Z ASCAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWED 20 KT WINDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA...BUT THE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS WAS CONFINED BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND 13N. LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT JUST N OF JAMAICA. WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...BLENDED A MIX OF MODELS STRONGLY FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA EASTWARD ALONG 32N...JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN MCS HAS MOVED EASTWARD FROM FLORIDA OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 76W. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IN HE VICINITY OF 28N. N OF 22N...MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW RETURN FLOW ALONG THE W FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 29 N WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE S THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. S OF 22N...THE PRES GRADIENT N OF HISPANIOLA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES UNTIL FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.