000 AGXX40 KNHC 170713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET WERE USED TO INITIALIZE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 12Z WED. BEYOND 12Z WED...A BALANCED MIX OF THE MODELS WAS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...THE 00Z GFS AND NWPS MODELS WERE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BUOY REPORTS INDICATE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF IS FRESH TO STRONG N OF 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. COMBINED SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE MEASURED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT. 0324Z ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AS WELL IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE WATERS JUST S OF LOUISIANA WERE INITIALIZED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR OBSERVED MCS ACTIVITY. FORECAST FOR THE GULF CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACH THE GULF BUT STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET WERE USED TO INITIALIZE WINDS THROUGH 12Z WED. BEYOND 12Z WED...A BALANCED MIX OF THE MODELS WAS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...THE 00Z GFS AND NWPS MODELS WERE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 2308Z ALTIMETRY INDICATED COMBINED SEAS OF 11 FT N OF COLUMBIA AT 13N74W. READINGS FROM BUOY 42058 HAVE BEEN RATHER STEADY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN SHOWING SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT AND WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT. 0138Z ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA AND 15N. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED NORTHWARD FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSENSUS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WIND EVENT WILL PEAK TODAY. WINDS JUST N OF THE COLUMBIA COAST WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 30 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS PEAKING AROUND 13 FT NEAR 12N76W AT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND ALLOW THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS EVENT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE IN CARRYING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR MORE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS...THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET WERE USED TO INITIALIZE WINDS THROUGH 12Z WED. BEYOND 12Z WED...A BALANCED MIX OF THE MODELS WAS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...THE 00Z GFS AND NWPS MODELS WERE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N73W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 29N. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS EVIDENT FROM 26N75W TO 29N68W...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 0142Z ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWED MODERATE WINDS FROM THE ESE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 22N. S OF 22N...TRADE WINDS WERE FRESH TO STRONG...WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS NOTED BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 22N. OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING W INTO THE AREA NEAR 28N WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NORTH OF 22N. FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON THU AND MON WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS THEY DISSIPATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES UNTIL THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.