000 AGXX40 KNHC 161851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LARGE TSTM CLUSTERS ARE SEEN MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN 91W-95W. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ACTIVITY. CURRENT BUOYS ARE REPORTING MODERATE SE WINDS W OF 86W...AND MODERATE E TO SE WINDS E OF 86W. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE E OF 91W...AND 3-5 FT W OF 91W...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 5-7 FT IN THE SW GULF FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE 5-7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 4-5 FT BY THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE KICKED UP AGAIN BY THE TSTM ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD SW TO THE NRN GULF E OF ABOUT 90W...WHILE A WEAK STALLED OUT FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE THE NE GULF COAST EXTENDING WNW ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA AND TO INLAND NE TX. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN GULF ALONG 83W FROM 25N-27N. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD SLIDING OFF TO THE ESE THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN WATERS TO ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DECREASE SOME THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DROP S TO JUST INLAND THE NRN GULF COAST ON THU AND BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH ITS REMNANTS BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE W OVER NE TX FRI AS STRONGER ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SSW OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF. SE WINDS INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE SW GULF FOLLOWED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF IN THE MORNINGS. THE WINDS BEHIND IT DIMINISH ON FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SAT WITH WINDS AHEAD OF IT BECOMING SW IN THE MODERATE RANGE IN THE NE GULF ZONE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS RATHER WEAK FOR THE TIME BEING WITH NOT TOO MUCH OVERALL INFLUENCE ON WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. BOTH BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE E WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 70-78W WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 10-12 FT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT N OF 13N W OF 82W. LATEST MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BE PRESENT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING BRINGING AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NE-E WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS THERE IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE AND SEAS STAYING HIGH...IN THE 10-13 FT RANGE. CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT DURATION GALE EVENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. MODEL 34 KT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PICK UP ON GALE WINDS THERE FOR TIME BEING. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN NE-E SWELL WILL PROPAGATE W AWAY FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES...AND TO POSSIBLY AS W AS 82W TUE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AT WHICH TIME THEY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR REST OF PERIOD. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL EXCEPT USED ECMWF TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERGAE CONFIDENCE FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE PRELIMINARY 18Z ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N70W SW TO NEAR MELBOURNE FL. HIGH PRES RIDGING IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N71W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 1428Z AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS SE OF THE FRONT AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS ARE IN THE NE PART OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE NRN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NW THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEPICTED IN MOISTURE GUIDANCE FIELDS FROM THE GFS. HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NE WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE LOW RANGE FOR DAYS 3-5 FT. A MINOR EXCEPTION IS E SWELL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN ZONE 127 TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT THU. S OF 22N...THE PRES GRADIENT N OF HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO AGAIN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES LATE TUE MORNING INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.