000 AGXX40 KNHC 160740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE NW GULF WERE INITIALIZED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF COASTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING NEAR THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. 0344Z ASCAT IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE NE OF A LINE FROM 22N85W TO 30N94W...AND MODERATE TO FRESH PRIMARILY IN SE RETURN FLOW TO THE SW OF THAT LINE. SOME FRESH WINDS WERE NOTED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUE AND WED... ALLOWING THE EXISTING SE RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ON THU...THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST...THEN STALL ON FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY EACH MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRIMARY AREA OF FOCUS REMAINS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 0200Z ASCAT IMAGERY SHOW 20-25 KT WINDS N OF COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA AS FAR AS 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. 0600Z READING FROM BUOY 42058 N OF COLUMBIA REPORTED SEAS 9 FT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC HAVE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS THE LOWS SHIFT EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD N OF THE AREA AND BRING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE CURRENT EVENT WILL PEAK ON TUE WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS PEAKING AROUND 13 FEET N OF THE COLUMBIA COAST NEAR 12N76W. THE EVENT WILL SLOWLY TAPER AFTER TUE...BUT WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FEET WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IS WEAK. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AND MOVE E OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 22N WILL VEER TO SE AND INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE ON MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THIS AREA ON WED AND THU AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE FAR NW WATERS. S OF 22N...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.