000 AGXX40 KNHC 150701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. A MIX OF MODELS FAVORING THE NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF HAS DISSIPATED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF JUST S OF LOUISIANA. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST TAMAULIPAS COASTLINE OF MEXICO. BUOY READINGS SHOW SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SINK A LITTLE FARTHER S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ON MON. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN AND SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING EACH MORNING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH EVENT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR ON MON...WHEN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED JUST N OF THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. A MIX OF MODELS FAVORING THE NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER READINGS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER ARE PRESENT N OF THE COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA COASTS. THE AREA EXTENDS FARTHEST TO THE N IN THE VICINITY OF 74W. THE 03Z READING FROM BUOY 42058 SHOWED 20 KT WINDS FROM THE ENE AND SEAS OF 8 FT. LATEST ALTIMETRY FROM 19Z THROUGH 21Z INDICATES SEAS S OF 15N AND E OF 45W THAT WERE AS HIGH AS 8 FT YESTERDAY HAVE SUBSIDED ABOUT A FOOT...SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION OF THIS AREA IN THE FORECAST. A PAIR OF FRONTS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ARE TEMPORARILY WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BECOME FRESH ON TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. A MIX OF MODELS FAVORING THE NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISSIPATING OVER THE NE WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE NW WATERS. LATEST ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT IMAGERY SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE WATERS NEAR 28N. WIND SPEEDS WERE GENTLE TO MODERATE...EXCEPT JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THEY WERE MODERATE TO FRESH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO E OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ON TUE AND WED SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER TO THE E. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SE TO S ON THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.