000 AGXX40 KNHC 140714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A MIX OF THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL RUNS WAS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. A MIX OF THE 00Z NWPS...ECMWF AND MWW3 FAVORING THE NWPS WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1017 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N. THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS JUST W OF THE YUCATAN...WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRESENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE PENINSULA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY SHOW SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE THERMAL THROUGH REPEATEDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN MOVING W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A COUPLE OF DAYS ON RAMPING UP ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE YUCATAN UNTIL WED AND THU. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS WELL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A MIX OF THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL RUNS WAS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. A MIX OF THE 00Z NWPS...ECMWF AND MWW3 FAVORING THE NWPS WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLUMBIA COAST S OF A LINE FROM 14N71W TO 13N76W. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING N OF THE AREA REMAINS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THESE WINDS. ALTIMETRY FROM MAY 13 AT 23Z SHOWED 5 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND CAUSE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE PULSING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...THEN TO AROUND 10 KT ON MON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING ON WED. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...LATEST ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS AROUND 8 FT FROM 10N TO 25N E OF 40W. THE 00Z NWPS BEST INITIALIZES THIS FEATURE...SO LATEST FORECAST FOR SEAS IN THIS AREA RELIES MOST HEAVILY ON THIS MODEL RUN. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NE SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUBSIDE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A MIX OF THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL RUNS WAS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. A MIX OF THE 00Z NWPS...ECMWF AND MWW3 FAVORING THE NWPS WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 29N. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY GENERALLY SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. SOME FRESH WINDS WERE NOTED ALONG THE N COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS IN S TO SW RETURN FLOW E OF FLORIDA N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU AS RIDGING REMAINS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD COLD FRONTS AT BAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CAN BE EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.