000 AGXX40 KNHC 131825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1020 MB LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF DOMINATES THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT THROUGHOUT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS THERMAL THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH MON EVENING AND NIGHT AND THEN TUE EVENING INTO WED MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. COLD FRONTS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND ON SUNDAY ARE BOTH FORECASTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING N OF AREA REMAINS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THESE WINDS. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES. THE RIDGE N OF AREA WILL BECOME STRONGER AND BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THEN...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON. BY MON NIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 22N...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA S OF 22N...WHERE A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTED E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 3-4 FT N OF 22N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 22N. CURRENTLY...A WEAK RIDGE IS TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE S WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS SUN THROUGH MON WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-6 FT ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON SUN. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A STRONGER HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 22N MON THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.