000 AGXX40 KNHC 130737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 337 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A MIX OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. A MIX OF THE 00Z MWW3 AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ABOUT 150 NM S OF LOUISIANA. SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION WERE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY SHOWED LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONTS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND ON SUNDAY ARE BOTH FORECASTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A MIX OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. A MIX OF THE 00Z MWW3 AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW A NARROW STRIP OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COLUMBIAN COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE WINDS. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS FROM THE SAME AREA INDICATE THE RELATED FETCH IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT. RIDGING TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON SUN AND MON...SO A MORE ROBUST EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE N OF COLUMBIA AS THE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDS. LATEST ALTIMETRY INDICATED SEAS CLOSE TO 8 FT FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. ECMWF BEST INITIALIZED THESE SEAS. HOWEVER...ELECTED NOT TO ADD THIS AREA TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DISPERSING NE SWELL THAT WERE GENERATED EARLIER BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A MIX OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. A MIX OF THE 00Z MWW3 AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE REGION IS GENERATING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE REGION. BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST COULD INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES OVER THE AREA TO THE S OF 20N ON MON THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.