000 AGXX40 KNHC 121830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 29N/30N TO COASTAL TEXAS WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS OBSERVED AND SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1-3 FT ACROSS THE NE WATERS. THE WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE NW WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRES THAT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION BY SAT NIGHT WITH GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE E GULF PORTION...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT E INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION MON WITH MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF ACROSS WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. WITH LONGER DURATION OF THIS WIND FIELD...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT IN THE NW GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FINALLY...A DIURNAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS...AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHARP AND PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA S-SW TO OVER PANAMA. MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED EAST OF THE AXIS WITHIN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED E OF 66W AND LIKELY ENHANCED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED S OF 16N ALONG 64W. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT THE BASIN... EXCEPT FOR AN AREA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE NE-E TRADES ARE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LATEST ALTIMETER AND UPDATED GRIDS INDICATE SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE ELEVATED SEAS WITHIN THE HIGHER WIND FIELD OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS THERE RANGING FROM 6-9 FT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE IN THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...BRIEFLY DECREASE ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUN THROUGH MON AS A CENTRAL ATLC HIGH BUILDS RIDGING TO THE SW INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES ARE FORECAST MON EXPANDING N TO NEAR 16N/17N. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N61W T0 A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF 28N73W. OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SEAS RANGE 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. WEAK AND RELATIVELY BENIGN TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND PASS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RELATED TO THE FIRST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA MOST LIKELY AS A TROUGH INTO SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S SE COAST SAT NIGHT...AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF BOTH FRONTS WILL BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. GENTLE N-NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTS UNDER A WEAK PRES PATTERN AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE BASIN N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW...IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 2-4 FT WITH THE THE WEAK FRONTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A LONG EASTERLY FETCH THERE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY ON MON. ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.