000 AGXX40 KNHC 111759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA... PARTICULARLY FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS. HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FL WHERE A PERSISTENT E-SE 15-20 KT WIND FLOW CONTINUES THERE. THEY ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT...AND TO 2-4 FT ON THU AS WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS BEGINS TO DIMINISH. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND NEAR THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF AREA THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY ON FRI...THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR EASTERN GULF BY LATE SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY BETWEEN 67W-75W. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST W OF HISPANIOLA TO ERN PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI WHILE WEAKENING. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE NE-E TRADES ARE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 6-7 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE DUE TO DECAYING NE-E SWELL THROUGH THOSE WATERS. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT ON THU. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N67W TO 24N72W WHILE A HIGH PRES OF 1024 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N72W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE S WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW IS SEEN ACROSS THE NW WATERS. BUOYS OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS OF 4-5 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ127. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FL ON FRI. THEN...A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD FRI AND SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW PORTION SUN WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WEAKENS TO A FRONTAL TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S SE COAST SAT NIGHT...AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF BOTH FRONTS WILL BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. GENTLE N-NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTS UNDER A WEAK PRES PATTERN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW...IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 2-4 FT WITH THE WEAK FRONTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A LONG ELY FETCH THERE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.