000 AGXX40 KNHC 101812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED AN EVEN MIX OF THE 06Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED THE 06Z MWW3...ECMWF AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HAD TO MAKE A LATE ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AS WINDS AT BUOY 42361 HAD INCREASED TO 25 KT AT 1330Z. 1012Z ALTIMETRY SHOWED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT E OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SURFACE ROUGHING MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST N OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. A REPEAT EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES RIDGING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN SE WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN QUICKLY MOVE E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED AN EVEN MIX OF THE 06Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED 06Z MWW3...ECMWF AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEEP CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHERN COLUMBIAN COAST LAST NIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WEAKENED. NEVERTHELESS...PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES JUST N OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THROUGH WED NIGHT. A BRIEF SURGE IN THE TRADES IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF A LINE FROM 17N85W TO 17N87W ON WED NIGHT. LATEST ASCAT SHOWS MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS SHOW SEAS N OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE HIGH SEAS THRESHOLD VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON FRI AND SAT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE N OF THE REGION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF COLUMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED AN EVEN MIX OF THE 06Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED THE 06Z MWW3...ECMWF AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY GENERALLY SHOWS GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND MODERATE WINDS S OF 25N. LATEST ALTIMETRY INITIALIZES SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT. THE LATEST FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 30N THROUGH THU. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ON TUE...THEN DISSIPATE ON WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRI AND SAT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND OR WEATHER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.