000 AGXX40 KNHC 100756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC WESTWARD TO ACROSS THE NRN GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW SE TO S MODERATE FLOW THROUGHOUT. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW IN THE NW GULF HAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE INTENSITY. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 5-7 FT RANGE FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W-96W. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE MAX 7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDE EWD TO THE WRN ATLC THU NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE ERN GULF. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI WITH OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT WITH GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE WINDS...AND WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS (ZONE GMZ025) AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N74W TO THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH S OF 13N. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL SWATH OF FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W-75W. MODERATE NE-E TRADES ARE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF 77W...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT W OF 77W. EVEN LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE CUBAN COAST...AND ALSO SW OF A LINE FROM COZUMEL TO 14N82W TO 11N75W. SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE DUE TO DECAYING NE-E SWELL. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT BY LATE WED. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH THU WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT. THE FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK TO THE FRESH RANGE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INTENSIFY SOME FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT LIKELY TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS IN THE SW PORTION OF ZONE (AMZ033). SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE WATERS FROM A PSN NEAR 23N65W SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N75W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO ACROSS NRN FL...AND TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT BUOY AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 27N W OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE SE-S WINDS N OF 27N EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE-S OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ONES AS WIND/WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE USED IN THE NDFD GRIDS IS MATCHING WELL WITH BUOY...SHIP AND ALTIMETER REPORTS. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO THE W AS A TROUGH TODAY...AND PASS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WED THROUGH THU. SOME WEAK SIGNATURE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FL ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. BY LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR WRN WATERS SAT. WHATEVER REMNANTS IS LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE NRN WATERS IS SHUNTED EWD TO THE FAR ERN PORTION BY LATE SAT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH RATER LOW SEAS OF ABOUT 2-4 FT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE GENTLE RANGE FROM THE NW IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS AROUND THE SAME RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOST PROBABLE WITH THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.