000 AGXX40 KNHC 091828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3...ECMWF AND 00Z NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GENERALLY VEER FROM THE SE OVER THE GULF. TROUGHING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL OCCASIONALLY GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S RETURN FLOW ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST IS ABATING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. OTHER THAN NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WED AND THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI AND SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3...ECMWF AND 00Z NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALTIMETRY CONTINUES TO COME IN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS FROM 50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTHWARD TO 20N. HAVE ADDED ABOUT A FOOT TO SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER NE SWELL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW COLUMBIA COAST TO SW HAITI. THIS FEATURE HAS SERVED AS THE FOCUS FOR AN MCS WHICH HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COLUMBIAN COAST DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. HAVE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR ZONES AMZ021 AND AMZ031 ACCORDINGLY. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE E TRADES THROUGHOUT. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE JUST S OF HAITI TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST TONIGHT...THEN ABATE BY MON AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3... ECMWF AND 00Z NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL CARRIES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N65W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED W OF THE FRONT AT 28N75W. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE W AS A TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH WED...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE BAHAMAS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF 30N THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO DISPLACE THE HIGH S OF 30N ON FRI AND SAT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.