000 AGXX40 KNHC 090840 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2016 CORRECTED SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING BAHAMAS SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 27N88W WITH A RIDGE NW TO NE TEXAS. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF...AND E-SE MODERATE FLOW IS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE W OF 90W WITH THE MAX OF 7 FT NEAR 27N95W. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE MAX 7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDE EWD TO THE WRN ATLC THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF ON FRI. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS (ZONE GMZ025) TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE SRN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS NICELY CAPTURED BY THE 0246 UTC ASCAT PASS EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF HAITI TO 15N75W AND TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE SEEN FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 74W-76W AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES ARE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT SEAS W OF 80W...AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO S NE-E SWELL THERE. THE 6-8 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AS THE SWELL ENERGY BECOMES DIFFUSE. STRONG NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX SEAS OF 7 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE E TRADES THROUGHOUT. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST TONIGHT...AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE WED AND THU. BY FRI NIGHT...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...CORRECTED TO MENTION SECOND TROUGH MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3/ECMWF THROUGH WED NIGHT ...THEN A BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT W OF THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 27N. BOTH CURRENT BUOY AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE SE-S WINDS N OF 26N EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO THE W AS A TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE MODERATE RANGE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W ACROSS THE FAR ERN WATERS THU THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE ALONG 27N...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N TO NEAR 30N BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED...TO JUST N OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN BE SHUNTED BACK S TO NEAR 30N ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. BY LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.