000 AGXX40 KNHC 090758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 27N88W WITH A RIDGE NW TO NE TEXAS. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF...AND E-SE MODERATE FLOW IS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE W OF 90W WITH THE MAX OF 7 FT NEAR 27N95W. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE MAX 7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDE E TO THE WRN ATLC THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF ON FRI. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS (ZONE GMZ025)TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE SRN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF HAITI TO 15N75W AND TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE SEEN FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 74W-76W AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STATIONARY TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE NLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 83W...AND NE-E W OF 83W IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH CENTER. IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-80W MODERATE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING PER THE 0306 ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING. THE 0126 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED E- SE MODERATE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE E IN DIRECTION TONIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE 0126 ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41040 POSITIONED AT 15N53W ARE OF MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W TO ABOUT 80W AND S OF 17N. SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...DUE TO A NE SWELL ARE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED BY LATEST ALTIMETER PASSES AND BUOY REPORTS TO BE CONFINED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN SECTIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES BEHIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY MON AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT MON AFTERNOON...AND TO 2-3 FT ON TUE AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THU. WEAK WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE WITHIN 60-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST BEGINNING MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 31N64W TO 25N66W TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING STATIONARY FROM THERE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES IS GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT AND E OF 65W. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW HAVING SHIFTED TO THE FAR E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATION OF THE ACTIVITY S OF 23N E OF 68W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW IN DIRECTION...EXCEPT FOR GENTLE NE-E WINDS S OF 26N W OF 71W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SW-W WINDS N OF 28N W OF 71W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TONIGHT N OF 25N...BUT STALL S OF 25N SW TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MON. THE COLD FRONT PORTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE ON MON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND MOVE BACK TO THE W OVER THE SE PORTION LATE MON NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND WED NIGHT AND APPROACH THE NW BAHAMAS AND WATERS JUST E OF S FLORIDA BY LATE THU AS A WEAK RIDGE BECOMES ALIGNED W TO E NEAR 31N. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE MODERATE RANGE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO ESE ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.