000 AGXX40 KNHC 081824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED AN EVEN MIX OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z MWW3...NWPS TAFB AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 28N86W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO IS ALREADY CAUSING WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COAST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG. LATEST BUOY AND ALTIMETER READINGS FROM THIS AREA SHOW SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FT. MODELS STILL AGREE ON THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMING THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH WED. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE SE-S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AND MON WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT. HIGHER SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATE MON THROUGH TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL DECREASE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY LOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A STRONG NOCTURNAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH PRODUCES HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR ZONES GMZ019 AND GMZ025. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED AN EVEN MIX OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z MWW3...NWPS TAFB AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W...WHERE ALL THE MODELS INITIALIZED ABOUT A FOOT LOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHERN COLUMBIA COAST TO PUERTO RICO PRODUCED VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HEAD WESTWARD AND WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ATTENDANT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH. LATEST ALTIMETRY CONTINUES TO SHOW COMBINED SEAS FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W AROUND 1 FT ABOVE ALL OF THE MARINE SWELL MODELS. ADJUSTED THIS AREA UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTRA SWELL ENERGY...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NE SWELL. STILL EXPECT FRESH NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY MON AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED AN EVEN MIX OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z MWW3...NWPS TAFB AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING NARRATIVE. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH MON...THEN DISPERSE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK TO THE W AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION TUE THROUGH THU. GRADUALLY WEAKENING HIGH PRES WILL PASS W TO E JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS MON...THEN TO THE NE OF BERMUDA ON TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.