000 AGXX40 KNHC 080757 MIMATS AGXX40 KNHC DDHHMM MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 27N88W WITH A RIDGE SE TO ACROSS THE SE GULF...AND WNW TO NE TEXAS. CURRENT BUOY AND LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERN GULF BUOYS ARE SHOWING THAT RETURN SE-S FLOW IS INCREASING WITH WINDS THERE IN THE MODERATE RANGE. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO REVEAL RATHER LOW WAVEHEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE BASIN WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE WITH THE 5 FT MAX SEAS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF 27N97W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO JUST W OF W/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL RE- ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH WED. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SE-S WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MON WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT. THESE SEAS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MWW3 AND NWPS GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THEY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON AND INTO TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS PROVIDING A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE AREA DAYS 4 AND 5. SEAS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE STRONG GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH KEEPS SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE FOR ZONE GMZ025. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA SW TO 15N76W AND TO NEAR 10N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SSW TO 15N72W. WEAK HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE W OF THE FRONT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN ITS DEPICTION OF VERY LARGE CLUSTERS OF INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SWD WITHIN 60-120 NM ESE OF THE TROUGH. THE LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT IS SHOWING NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE NLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 83W...AND NE-E W OF 83W IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH CENTER. IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-80W MODERATE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING PER THE 0306 ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING. THE 0126 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED E- SE MODERATE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE E IN DIRECTION TONIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE 0126 ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41040 POSITIONED AT 15N53W ARE OF MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W TO ABOUT 80W AND S OF 17N. SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...DUE TO A NE SWELL ARE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED BY LATEST ALTIMETER PASSES AND BUOY REPORTS TO BE CONFINED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN SECTIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES BEHIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY MON AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT MON AFTERNOON...AND TO 2-3 FT ON TUE AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THU. WEAK WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE WITHIN 60-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST BEGINNING MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 31N64W TO 25N66W TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING STATIONARY FROM THERE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES IS GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT AND E OF 65W. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW HAVING SHIFTED TO THE FAR E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATION OF THE ACTIVITY S OF 23N E OF 68W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW IN DIRECTION...EXCEPT FOR GENTLE NE-E WINDS S OF 26N W OF 71W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SW-W WINDS N OF 28N W OF 71W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TONIGHT N OF 25N...BUT STALL S OF 25N SW TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MON. THE COLD FRONT PORTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE ON MON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND MOVE BACK TO THE W OVER THE SE PORTION LATE MON NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND WED NIGHT AND APPROACH THE NW BAHAMAS AND WATERS JUST E OF S FLORIDA BY LATE THU AS A WEAK RIDGE BECOMES ALIGNED W TO E NEAR 31N. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE MODERATE RANGE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO ESE ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.