000 AGXX40 KNHC 071755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MAINLY 06Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 06Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF 12Z NWPS TAFB WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1018 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N93W OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE SE OF THIS AXIS WITH RETURN FLOW TO THE NW OF THE AXIS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS HIGH SHIFTING EAST TO THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ON MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE S TX COAST N OF 26N TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING BEGINNING TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH E-SE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF IN THE MORNINGS...AND WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND RETURN FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT LATE SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA ON TUE WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE BASIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TIME-FRAME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MAINLY 06Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 06Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF 12Z NWPS TAFB WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH SUN. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH AND SW OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM S OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA CARIBBEAN COASTLINE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT CAN EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY NE SUN AND E BY MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES EARLY THIS WEEK...AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ATLC...WINDS TO THE N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT STARTING MON NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW THROUGH SUN NIGHT ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SPREADING EAST TO PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY AND ALSO AFFECTING CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THESE ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MAINLY 06Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 06Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF 12Z NWPS TAFB WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM 31N70W TO 22N77W IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RESIDES ABOUT 150 NM TO THE EAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MERGED FRONT TO MOVE EAST A FEW HUNDRED NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STALLING OUT ONCE AGAIN. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM EAST OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26 N FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 14 FT ALONG 31N JUST E OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON MON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THIS REGION AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN NIGHT...THEN JUST NE OF BERMUDA BY TUE MORNING. REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATED FRONT...IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH...ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD ON MON...THEN DRIFT WESTWARD HISPANIOLA AND JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON TUE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.