000 AGXX40 KNHC 070756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW GULF AT 28N93W. CURRENT BUOY AND LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND GENTLE N-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR WINDS VEERING TO SE-S IN DIRECTION W OF 92W IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH CENTER. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW LOWER SEAS THAN YESTERDAY...NOW DOWN TO THE 2-4 FT RANGE S OF 28N E OF 91W AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ENE TO JUST S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 29N88W WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH CENTER THAT DROPS SWD FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN INTO WED. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY AROUND 7 OR 8 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING FOLLOWED BY FRESH E-SE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF IN THE MORNINGS...AND WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY BLASTED THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS STALLED FROM THE FAR EASTERN TIP OF CUBA SW TO JUST E OF JAMAICA AND TO NEAR BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LESS IN THE WAY OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT HAS INFILTRATED THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-75W. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE NLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHERE N-NE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WERE NOTED ON THE 0328Z ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING. THE NLY WINDS BECOME NE IN DIRECTION N OF HONDURAS AND W OF 85W IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. E TO SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG RANGE... BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO THE MODERATE RANGE TONIGHT. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AND WIND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41040 AT 15N53W ARE OF MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 83W AND S OF 16N... AND ALSO IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ZONES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HAITI TO THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRES BEHIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. ASIDE FROM WINDS E OF THE FRONT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE NLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME E IN DIRECTION ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS ANALYZED AT 06Z AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 25N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND WELL INTO THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES IS GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 24N WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT...THE HIGHEST ARE CONCENTRATED N OF 28N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF ABOUT 21N. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA IS DISPLAYING FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 15 NM OF LINE FROM 23N70W TO 24N67W. THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW IN DIRECTION...EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO RESUME AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND TSTM SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EXTREME FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND TO E OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT JUST E OF THE AREA ON SUN AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BEHIND IT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL STALL JUST E OF THE BASIN SUN NIGHT WITH ITS SOUTHERN PORTION REACHING SSW TO NEAR THE NE SECTION OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRES THEN SETS UP NEAR OR ALONG 30N MON THROUGH WED. THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE BACK W AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE SE PORTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE IN INTENSITY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO ESE ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.