000 AGXX40 KNHC 021709 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 109 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO RETRACT E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF LIGHTER WIND BETWEEN THE FRONT AND ABOUT 90W. VSBY HAS INCREASED FROM 1-3 TO WIDESPREAD 3-5NM WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 1-3 ATTM. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT FOG ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ALONG 90W TONIGHT JUST AHEAD THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. THE ARRAY OF GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN IN LINE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND NOW MOVES THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT A LITTLE FASTER ACROSS THE SW GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PASSING E OF ALL GULF WATERS ON WED NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 27N95W ON WED NIGHT AND MEANDER IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THU WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO THE FL STRAITS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON THU NIGHT WITH A N-S RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 91W SETTING UP MODERATE-FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF THE RIDGE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME ON SAT AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH E-SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 5- 7 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH THE E FLOW DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 75W BY LATE TUE. FRESH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 85W THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT-GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW FORECAST ON WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WED NIGHT...AND REACHING FROM E CUBA TO FAR NE NICARAGUA LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING...NOTING THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS MOVING THE FRONT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NOW SUGGESTS MODERATE-FRESH N FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY ON THU NIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS YUCATAN BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 27N65W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N72W. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL STALL BETWEEN 55-65W TODAY...WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING BACK W OF 65W AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING ON TUE. A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FL ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE TUE NIGHT...PRECEDED BY FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING TO STRONG N OF 30N ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N70W TO NE CUBA ON THU NIGHT AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON FRI NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM 27N60W TO HISPANIOLA ON SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.