000 AGXX40 KNHC 301709 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 109 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF WATERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY 3- 5 NM REPORTS. WILL CARRY DENSE FOG IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR FIRST 24 HOURS. STRONG SE RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT...CURRENTLY OVER THE SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO FRESH WINDS WITH 4-7 FT SEAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED BRIEF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF ON MON WITH STRONG N WINDS SETTING UP W OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N97W ON MON NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING S TO NEAR 19N96W ON TUE EVENING...AS THE FRONT THEN MOVES E AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WED EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE PULSE TO STRONG THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE PORTION WITH SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 29N. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 68W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NE FL WILL CONTINUE E PASSING BERMUDA TONIGHT WITH A NE TO SW RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL ON SUN NIGHT...THEN MEANDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SE ON WED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE NE FL COAST. REINFORCING WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.