000 AGXX40 KNHC 291736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 136 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE THE NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR N FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF WATERS...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBY 3-5 NM WITH EMBEDDED 1-3 NM EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS DENSE FOG WILL BE CARRIED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR FIRST 24 HOURS. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW...SEAS 5-8 FT...IS CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF WITH A SWATH OF STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX SAT AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A W TO E RIDGE SETS UP FROM NE TX TO CENTRAL FL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 65-70W ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND ON SAT EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 20N78W THIS EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGHS. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS S TO ACROSS MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE SE CONUS TODAY N OF THE RIDGE...AND PASS BERMUDA ON SAT EVENING BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S ON MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE NE FL COAST AND MEANDERS THERE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.