000 AGXX40 KNHC 281808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG 29N/30N TO 90W WHILE LOWER PRESSURE AND A TROUGH IS INLAND ACROSS MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE THE FRONT FLATTENS OUT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FRI AND SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH 30N...HOWEVER HAVE VERY LITTLE TO OFFER THE GULF IN THE WAY OF A WIND SHIFT OR IMPACT ON SEAS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT INTO FRI INCREASING WINDS INTO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY INTO A RANGE OF 7 TO 9 FT W OF 89W. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH EVENING ACROSS THE YUCATAN THAT WILL PROPAGATE TO THE W-NW SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION REMAINS A LOCAL PULSING INCREASE IN PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SIMILARLY...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. BY SUN...A LOCAL INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL MATERIALIZE PRODUCING A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO 24N69W IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BECOMING BROADER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH FRI. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER AS A FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLC COAST. A TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST FRI WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS 28N WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.