000
AGXX40 KNHC 280700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG 30N
AND A TROUGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND
PROPAGATING TO THE W TO NW WILL HELP SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS AT NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF WILL
STRENGTHEN FRESH SE WINDS THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
FOR THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LONE
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE A LOCAL INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE HONDURAS COAST.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 25N65W IS
EVIDENT FROM SAT IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BECOMING MORE NE/SW ORIENTED.
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH FRI. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS OVER THE
NW CORNER. A TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST FRI WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MAY EXTEND
AS FAR S AS 28N WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS IN NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.