000 AGXX40 KNHC 270600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR 30N. ASCAT DATA SHOWS GENTLE E-SE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE YUCATAN AND ELSEWHERE S OF 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG 30N FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS W OF 90W THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THE NW GULF BY FRI. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SEVERAL MORE DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE SUBNORMAL TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO THE S OF HISPANIOLA. A WEAK TROUGH NE OF HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER THIS WEEK TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W- 68W. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA HAS DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 30-31N FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N65W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS MOST OT THE AREA N OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 26N. EXPECT A WEAK RIDGE TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG 30N/31N INTO LATE THU OR EARLY FRI. A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST FRI WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS 30N WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN NW WATERS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING N OF PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS2 COLLABORATION OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.