000
AGXX40 KNHC 261905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR 30N. ASCAT
DATA SHOWS GENTLE E-SE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE
YUCATAN AND ELSEWHERE S OF 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG 30N FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH SAT. A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS W OF 90W
THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THE NW GULF BY
FRI. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS GENTLE SUBNORMAL TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO THE S
OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BENIGN SEAS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL
MORE DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO 
TO HISPANIOLA WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N70W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING W INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS E OF 75W AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS W OF 75W. EXPECT A WEAK RIDGE TO
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG 30N/31N INTO LATE FRI/SAT.
MODELS DIVERGE SAT AND SUN WITH A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT SLATED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GFS APPEARS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS
WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MORE ROBUST. A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING N OF PUERTO
RICO WED THROUGH SAT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
IN SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.