000
AGXX40 KNHC 251803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. MODERATE E-SE
WINDS ARE EVIDENT N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF REGION THROUGH FRI. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EACH EVENING NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...DRIFT WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER TEXAS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH THU. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT. WINDS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT ON FRI...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
FORECAST ZONES GMZ011...GMZ017...AND GMZ019 WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
8 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...THE RESULT OF A FRONT N OF THE AREA AND WEAK LOW
PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED BUT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING IN NORTHERN S AMERICA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THESE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH WED...THEN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS THU AND FRI.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE SE WATERS EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO THE
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT
ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NE WATERS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 1003 MB NEAR 32N60W AND A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY
EXITING THE CAROLINAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND AN ALTIMETER PASS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE MARINE CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING E OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG 30N BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.