000 AGXX40 KNHC 241759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 30N87W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. THE EXCEPTION IS WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ABOUT 93W WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS PREVAILS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A THERMAL TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC LATER TODAY...AND A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE W GULF THROUGH THU...WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE W GULF...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FORECAST ZONES GMZ011 AND GMZ017. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGH PRES E-NE OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS S OF 15N E OF 75W AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIRLY BENIGN TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH LIES FROM 31N65W TO 23N68W. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MERGE LATER TODAY. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28 TO ABOUT 62W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 10-11 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE MON. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE WATERS THROUGH MON...THEN STALL ALONG 20N ON TUE AND LIFT SLIGHTLY N ON WED WHILE WEAKENING. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.