000
AGXX40 KNHC 240600
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SYNOPTIC
DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC LATER TODAY...AND
BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE
TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE W GULF MON THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-6 FT IN THE NW GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRES
E-NE OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH ALONG 70W IN THE W ATLC MOVES E. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
MODERATE E WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W AND WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIRLY BENIGN TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A LOW NEAR 35N70W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS IS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE REGION.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF
27N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED FROM
THE GFS MODEL FCST. THE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES E OF
65W TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF 60W MON THROUGH WED. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TUE THROUGH THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS2 COLLABORATION OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.