000 AGXX40 KNHC 231802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N88W. HIGH PRES OF 1019 MB CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MAINLY GENTLE NW WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BY LATE SUN...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE W GULF MON THROUGH WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 28N60W AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W...INCLUDING ALSO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA BECOMES LESS OF A FACTOR AS WELL...ALLOWING TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO STEADILY DIMINISH WITH SEAS BECOMING 5-6 FT BY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT FAIRLY BENIGN TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N60W WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 31N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY EARLY SUN MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND N OF 28N. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WRAPPING UP INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF 60W MON THROUGH WED. BY EARLY MON MORNING...THE LOW PRES OF 1009 MB IS FORECAST TO BE E OF AREA NEAR 29N57W WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 19N66W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.